Trend AnalysisMedicine & Health

Liquid Biopsy and ctDNA: Detecting Cancer's Invisible Residue

After curative-intent surgery for solid tumours, 20–50% of patients relapse — implying that microscopic cancer cells (minimal residual disease, MRD) persisted undetected. Conventional imaging cannot s...

By Sean K.S. Shin
This blog summarizes research trends based on published paper abstracts. Specific numbers or findings may contain inaccuracies. For scholarly rigor, always consult the original papers cited in each post.

The Question

After curative-intent surgery for solid tumours, 20–50% of patients relapse — implying that microscopic cancer cells (minimal residual disease, MRD) persisted undetected. Conventional imaging cannot see clusters smaller than ~5 mm. Circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) — fragments of tumour-derived DNA shed into the bloodstream — can detect MRD months before clinical relapse, potentially enabling earlier intervention. The clinical question: should ctDNA-MRD status guide adjuvant therapy decisions? If ctDNA is negative post-surgery, can chemotherapy be safely omitted? If positive, should therapy be escalated?

Landscape

L. Li & Sun (2024) reviewed ctDNA methylation as a liquid biopsy biomarker. Unlike mutation-based ctDNA detection (which requires prior knowledge of tumour-specific mutations), methylation-based approaches can detect cancer-associated epigenetic patterns without tumour tissue — enabling screening in patients with unknown tumour genotypes. Their review covered multiple ctDNA methylation biomarker classes, including tumour suppressor gene promoter methylation, across applications from early screening to MRD detection.

Aredo et al. (2025) from ASCO Educational Book reviewed the current clinical landscape of liquid biopsy for MRD detection, therapy monitoring, and comprehensive genomic profiling. They documented three clinical use cases approaching standard-of-care: (1) comprehensive genomic profiling for identifying targetable mutations, (2) MRD detection post-surgery to guide adjuvant therapy, and (3) monitoring of therapeutic resistance mechanisms through serial ctDNA analysis.

Zeng et al. (2025) examined the biological and technical challenges of ctDNA in non-metastatic breast cancer, where ctDNA levels are often extremely low. They reviewed emerging technologies including fragmentomics, methylation sequencing, and long-read sequencing, as well as machine learning approaches for improving detection sensitivity in this challenging clinical context.

Kuligina et al. (2025) reviewed strategies for improving ctDNA detection sensitivity, including fragment size selection, epigenetic enrichment, and error-corrected sequencing — technical innovations that push the limit of detection toward single-molecule sensitivity.

Key Claims & Evidence

<
ClaimEvidenceVerdict
ctDNA methylation enables tissue-of-origin identificationCancer-specific methylation patterns detectable without prior tumour sequencing (L. Li & Sun 2024)Supported; Grail's Galleri test uses this approach
ctDNA-MRD detection predicts relapse months before imagingMultiple prospective studies across cancer types (Aredo et al. 2025)Well-established; lead time of 3–15 months depending on cancer type (longer in breast cancer)
ctDNA detection in non-metastatic breast cancer faces unique challengesEmerging technologies (fragmentomics, methylation sequencing, ML) improving sensitivity (Zeng et al. 2025)Active area; clinical validation ongoing
Single-molecule sensitivity is approaching feasibilityError-corrected sequencing, fragment size selection, epigenetic enrichment (Kuligina et al. 2025)Technically demonstrated; clinical validation ongoing

Open Questions

  • Clinical actionability: If ctDNA-MRD is detected, what should clinicians do? Escalation trials (DYNAMIC, circulate) are ongoing but not yet conclusive for most cancer types.
  • De-escalation: Can ctDNA-negative patients safely omit adjuvant chemotherapy? The DYNAMIC-III trial in colorectal cancer is testing this paradigm-shifting question.
  • Serial monitoring frequency: How often should ctDNA be measured post-surgery? Monthly? Quarterly? The optimal surveillance schedule is unknown.
  • False negatives: ctDNA shedding varies by tumour type, size, and location. Brain tumours and low-grade cancers may not shed detectable ctDNA. How should clinicians interpret negative results?
  • Referenced Papers

    • [1] Li, L. & Sun, Y. (2024). ctDNA methylation detection: advances and challenges. MedComm — Oncology. DOI: 10.1002/mco2.766
    • [2] Aredo, J. et al. (2025). Liquid Biopsy for Cancer Characterization, MRD, and Therapy Monitoring. ASCO Educational Book. DOI: 10.1200/EDBK-25-481114
    • [3] Zeng, Z. et al. (2025). Challenges of ctDNA in non-metastatic breast cancer. Cancer Letters. DOI: 10.1016/j.canlet.2025.217574
    • [4] Kuligina, E. et al. (2025). Improving ctDNA-based liquid biopsy sensitivity. Exploration of Targeted Anti-tumor Therapy. DOI: 10.37349/etat.2025.1002333
    • [5] Liu, Q. et al. (2025). Liquid Biopsy in CRC: Early Detection, MRD, and Therapy Optimization. Diagnostic Cytopathology. DOI: 10.1002/dc.70009

    References (5)

    Li, L., & Sun, Y. (2024). Circulating tumor DNA methylation detection as biomarker and its application in tumor liquid biopsy: advances and challenges. MedComm, 5(11).
    Aredo, J. V., Jamali, A., Zhu, J., Heater, N., Wakelee, H. A., Vaklavas, C., et al. (2025). Liquid Biopsy Approaches for Cancer Characterization, Residual Disease Detection, and Therapy Monitoring. American Society of Clinical Oncology Educational Book, 45(3).
    Zeng, Z., Yi, Z., & Xu, B. (2025). The biological and technical challenges facing utilizing circulating tumor DNA in non-metastatic breast cancer patients. Cancer Letters, 616, 217574.
    Kuligina, E. S., Yanus, G. A., & Imyanitov, E. N. (2025). Improvement of the sensitivity of circulating tumor DNA-based liquid biopsy: current approaches and future perspectives. Exploration of Targeted Anti-tumor Therapy, 6.
    Liu, Q., Li, X., Jin, T., Huo, S., Su, S., & Liu, N. (2025). Liquid Biopsy in CRC Management: Early Detection, Minimal Residual Disease, and Therapy Optimization—Clinical Evidence and Challenges. Diagnostic Cytopathology, 53(11), 580-591.

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